# Test 2 Interpretation: S-I Regime Contingency

## Replication of Paper 1 (Base Spec, Full Panel)

- Savings: Z₁ = -277.6 (p = 0.0000)
- Investment: Z₁ = 158.6 (p = 0.0000)
- S-I gap: Z₁ = -469.4 (p = 0.0000)

## EMU Interaction (Margin Switching Test)

- Investment: Z₁ (non-EMU) = 161.2, Z₁×EMU = -58.4 (p = 0.1612)
  → EMU total = 102.8
- Savings: Z₁ (non-EMU) = -285.1, Z₁×EMU = 80.1 (p = 0.1559)

## Verdict

**NOT CONFIRMED**: Z₁×EMU is null on both S and I. The Phase 12 within-EMU 
investment dominance may be an artifact of the within-union demeaning approach.
